The Trump Era Is Over
To be blunt, the 2026 midterm elections were a disaster. Even the worst predictions proved too conservative, as Democrats took both the House and the Senate and won in conservative strongholds like Mississippi and Kansas. The biggest shocker, however, came in the Lone Star State, where Democrats won both the governorship and the U.S. Senate seat. Sadly, many of the issues this Substack has highlighted over the past 16 months weren’t fully addressed by Republicans and President Trump, and we’ve now paid the price.
The facts about the “blue tsunami” election:
The two top themes of this Substack have been a) affordability/inflation and b) the technological revolution. While President Trump deserves credit for many good policies in both areas, it clearly wasn’t enough. Inflation at 3.7% is devastating to many middle-class households.
Exit polls consistently showed that affordability was the number one issue for most voters, and the Iran War exacerbated it. 3 out of 4 voters stated the Iran War was a major factor in their vote, and 62% of those voters selected Democrats.
President Trump’s unique and broad 2024 coalition included significant gains with young men and Hispanics. Young men were +20 for President Trump during 2024, and were -19 for Republicans during the midterms. That is a MASSIVE swing in support from one party to another, and it’s a major reason Republicans lost across the board. Gen Z and millennial males dislike the overt Israeli influence in the Trump White House and the betrayal the Iran War represents.
As Governor DeSantis rightly pointed out yesterday, a Republican victory in the 2028 presidential election will still mean Democratic control of the U.S. Congress. Not enough senators are up for reelection in 2028 for Republicans to retake the Senate.
Many pundits who pored over the election data noticed that government corruption was an animating issue for many voters. The lack of accountability for deep state criminals and shady shenanigans within the Trump White House alienated independents and younger men who want to rid the federal government of systemic corruption.
It is sad to write this piece, as the blueprint for retaining Congress and building on President Trump’s exceptional 2024 coalition was attainable. In the end, too many individuals from the MAGA base stayed home while new additions to the Trump coalition defected to the Democrats. The Iran War was particularly disastrous to Republicans, as it represented to many voters a betrayal of his promises concerning “forever wars” while raising the cost of living significantly via gas prices. I sincerely hope President Trump will rediscover his populist instincts from a decade ago and try to salvage his remaining two years.
