Weekly Wisdom | Iran War Insanity
This past Wednesday, President Trump addressed the nation regarding the war with Iran. If all goes well, United States military operations will end in 2-3 weeks. However, the war with Iran is currently splitting MAGA, and is leading to a collapse in support for President Trump (see last week’s Weekly Wisdom). And if trends continue, the Democrats are poised to reclaim not only the House but also the Senate. But this won’t be the only negative outcome if this war with Iran escalates. The devastating results of this war could also hurt us economically, militarily, and diplomatically.
The damaging effects could be lasting:
The Gulf Cooperation Council member states - Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates - have pledged over $2 trillion in investment into the United States during President Trump’s Middle East tour last year. Now, due to domestic infrastructure damage by Iranian missiles and drones, many of those investments are on hold.
One implicit aspect of the petrodollar system is that the United States secures global energy trade routes. If the United States doesn’t fully open the Strait of Hormuz, other countries may settle their energy payments in other currencies. And over time, that will undermine the USD as the global reserve currency, which helps keep inflation low here at home.
If oil hits $150 a barrel, the world will enter a global recession. If oil hits $200 a barrel, the world will enter a global depression. Continuing this war only raises the economic stakes.
The probability of this war spreading to other countries rises as it lingers. And as more countries participate, the odds of this regional war escalating to a World War only go up. Both World Wars demonstrate this point.
The United States has pulled some of our THAAD and Patriot air defense systems from South Korea and Europe and is moving them to the Middle East. Understandably, South Korea is nervous about threats from North Korea and China, and Europeans feel less confident amid the Russian menace. In other words, our allies are losing trust in our ability to provide a defensive shield, which in turn could affect our economic and defense partnerships with them.
This war, like most wars, is already demoralizing (see the polls) the majority of Americans. And considering our nation’s 250th birthday is in less than 100 days, it is unfortunate that an unpopular war may dim the joy most Americans should rightfully feel about this historic moment.
Wars lead to casualties from combat, which means a drawn-out war increases the likelihood that some of America’s finest may not be returning home to their loved ones.
All things considered, a war with Iran risks seriously damaging the Trump presidency, the U.S. economy and military, and the global economy. The United States must ultimately act in its own best interest, not in Israel’s. Until the national debt is sustainable and our defense industrial base is rebuilt, we cannot police the globe. End this war, President Trump, and may diplomacy prevail!
